Sources
Reality Fracture sources →What the The Hobbit guide relies on, and the limits of what is known.
Data snapshots
8 datasetsEach snapshot keeps its own date.
| Dataset | Source | Snapshot | Refresh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sealed pricesTCGplayer market prices, matched to the exact product and case size. | TCGCSV product group 24683 | Daily source update | |
| SinglesUSD prices for each exact printing and finish. | The Hobbit card catalog and prices | Covered singles daily | |
| Official rates & contents2 booster configurations | Collecting The Hobbit · The Hobbit products · The Hobbit Welcome Decks · All the Scene Cards from The Hobbit | When official information changes | |
| Cards & rules479 catalog printings | The Hobbit card catalog and prices · The Hobbit card, deck and collation data | When card data changes | |
| ReviewsAndrew Quinn’s August 3 initial-impression review, last updated August 29, supplies direct /10 grades. September strategy sources and original examples remain separately attributed; no consensus or format-specific grade is inferred. | September 6 community review · WU construction · September 2 Premier review · Keep the second color open · September 3 draft review · Kíli support · The Ultimate The Hobbit Limited Set Review | When reviewed sources change | |
| Glossary51 terms | Scryfall exact-card Oracle records · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes · Magic Comprehensive Rules · Reality Fracture Release Notes | When rules or catalog terms change | |
| Pack model ModeledEstimates from booster sheets | The Hobbit card, deck and collation data | When collation or prices change | |
| Draft dataPick-Two Draft: 2026-08-11–2026-08-29 · Premier Draft: 2026-08-11–2026-08-29 | 17Lands Pick-Two Draft public game dataset · 17Lands public datasets · 17Lands metric definitions · CC BY 4.0 · Cluster sandwich covariance reference · 17Lands Premier Draft public game dataset | Dated public snapshot |
Sealed market prices refresh from the source’s daily update. If the source cannot be reached, the guide keeps its dated saved snapshot. Covered singles refresh daily; other printings keep their dated Scryfall snapshot. Shipping and taxes may differ; a market price is not a stock guarantee.
Limits & caveats
Odds
- Wizards percentages are rounded category frequencies. A category rate is not the probability of every card within it.
- Booster membership and fixed deck lists are checked against MTGJSON collation data; the published percentages above are from Wizards.
- Box Toppers are separate inserts in sealed booster displays, not an extra card inside an individual booster.
Prices
- A dash means no verified price; it doesn’t mean a card is worthless. A card image may illustrate a foil variant without reproducing its reflective finish.
- MSRP is Wizards’ published US suggested retail price. A pack/deck MSRP multiplied by the number of units is a comparison reference, not an official box or case MSRP.
Catalog
- Prerelease Packs include a foil rare or mythic rare promo. Wizards does not specify a date stamp; the exact promo printing and price remain unverified.
- The Battle of Five Armies co-op kit is announced for 2027. Its Collector Booster preview cards are cataloged, but the future product is not priced as currently available.
- All ten original book-cover printings are included regardless of market price.
- The HOC set code denotes Eternal-legal cards, not a released 100-card Commander deck.
- Welcome Decks are introductory references, not priced retail products.
- The 2027 co-op kit is not a current product; no price or unreleased fixed list is asserted.
- Hobbit card-bearing products and verified configurations; excludes accessories and Arena bundles.
- This guide covers card-bearing products and verified retail configurations. It excludes separately sold sleeves, playmats and other accessories, digital Arena bundles, and arbitrary retailer multipacks.
Model
- Model estimates are not guaranteed returns.
References
59Where the advice comes from
The deck plans draw on late-format draft guides and discussions. The step-by-step lessons apply those ideas to the actual card text. Exact card pairings are examples, not measured combination win rates.
| Title | Publisher | Published | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official 22 | |||
| Collecting The Hobbit ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| The Hobbit products ↗ | Wizards of the Coast Play Network | — | Captured |
| The Hobbit Welcome Decks ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| All the Scene Cards from The Hobbit ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | — | Captured |
| Marshall Sutcliffe · How to Booster Draft ↗General 40-card deck construction. General Limited construction; historical booster contents and draft-table examples are not current set rules. | Wizards of the CoastMarshall Sutcliffe | ||
| Gavin Verhey · How to Build a Mana Curve ↗Mana-curve principles; adjust for the deck’s plan. | Wizards of the Coast | — | |
| Reid Duke · The Basics of Mana ↗Casting reliability and mana sources. | Wizards of the CoastReid Duke | ||
| Gavin Verhey · Building a coherent Limited deck ↗General Limited principles from a Sealed article. | Wizards of the Coast | — | |
| Pick-Two Draft format ↗Paper format; four-player pod and return-pack examples are not asserted as Arena rules. | Wizards of the Coast | — | |
| Sealed Deck ↗Compare complete Sealed builds, mana and sideboard options. | Wizards of the CoastReid Duke | ||
| Building a Mana base ↗Colored-source requirements and the cost of a splash; no formula is presented here as a measured set target. | Wizards of the CoastReid Duke | ||
| Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Prerelease Guide ↗Official five designed archetypes and their signpost uncommons, not measured Pick-Two strength. | Wizards of the CoastJubilee Finnegan | ||
| Secrets of Strixhaven MTG Arena Event Schedule ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| Collecting Reality Fracture ↗ | Wizards of the CoastMike Turian and Jubilee Finnegan | ||
| Enter the Echoverse with Reality Fracture Design ↗ | Wizards of the CoastYoni Skolnik | ||
| Signals in Booster Draft ↗General evidence of availability, not set-specific pick numbers or Arena pod assumptions. | Wizards of the CoastReid Duke | ||
| Two Prerelease Changes Coming with Reality Fracture ↗ | Wizards of the Coast Play Network | ||
| The Hobbit Dates and Details ↗ | Wizards of the Coast Play Network | ||
| The Hobbit event schedule ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| Sealed Deck format ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | — | |
| The Basics of Booster Draft ↗ | Wizards of the CoastReid Duke | ||
| Two-Headed Giant format ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | — | |
| Prices 1 | |||
| TCGCSV product group 24683prices ↗ · products ↗ | TCGCSV / TCGplayer | Rolling | |
| Card data 8 | |||
| The Hobbit card catalog and prices ↗Exact Play identities and card faces; summaries are rules-derived, not reviewer ratings. Card costs, timing and interactions; not human strategic rankings. | ScryfallWizards of the Coast; card data via Scryfall · Wizards of the Coast via Scryfall | Rolling | Captured |
| The Hobbit card, deck and collation data ↗ | MTGJSON | Rolling | Captured |
| Goblin-town ↗ | ScryfallWizards of the Coast | Rolling | |
| Lake-town ↗ | ScryfallWizards of the Coast | Rolling | |
| Mirkwood ↗ | ScryfallWizards of the Coast | Rolling | |
| Iron Hills ↗ | ScryfallWizards of the Coast | Rolling | |
| Elvenking's Halls ↗ | ScryfallWizards of the Coast | Rolling | |
| Scryfall exact-card Oracle records ↗ | Scryfall | Rolling | Captured |
| Reviews & strategy 13 | |||
| Marshall Sutcliffe & Paul Cheon · LR 871 ↗Only draft-relevant passages are applied; no Sealed splash policy is transferred. Draft analysis; Sealed advice is discussed separately. | Limited Resources | — | |
| AAA · Late-format draft guidance ↗Author-reported competitive results; precise curve quotas are not universal rules. | note.com | — | |
| Hajime Madoka · Draft notes ↗Observed deck constructions, not statistical sub-archetype rankings. Arena draft analysis; the exact draft queue is unspecified. | note.com | — | |
| Community guide · Drafting blue-black ↗Small self-reported sample; standard-draft pick numbers are intentionally omitted. | — | ||
| September 9 community discussion · UB construction ↗Multiple opinions, not evidence of consensus UB dominance. Community views on a blue draw-two base, black removal and slower recursion. | — | ||
| Community example · Contender draft ↗One successful draft illustrates contextual choices; results are self-reported. One self-reported Contender example with an Elf core and white splash. | — | ||
| September 6 community review · WU construction ↗Uses main construction discussion; excludes a later Pick-Two comment. | — | ||
| September 2 Premier review · Keep the second color open ↗Specific draft review, not a universal color or pick order. | — | ||
| September 3 draft review · Kíli support ↗Contextual community review; mechanical limits checked independently. | — | ||
| Community guide · Blue-white deck plans ↗Recruit/go-wide and draw-two deck plans. Publication date is unverified. | — | ||
| Community deck critique · Payoffs and enablers ↗Community deck critique about payoffs without enough enablers. Publication date is unverified. | — | ||
| The Ultimate The Hobbit Limited Set Review ↗General Limited initial-impression review, with article last updated August 29. No Pick-Two, Sealed or Two-Headed Giant rating is inferred. | DraftsimAndrew Quinn | Updated | |
| Rules 6 | |||
| Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes ↗Official card rulings. | Wizards of the CoastEliana Rabinowitz and Eric Levine | ||
| Comprehensive Rules: Two-Headed Giant, shared turns, and card-specific rules ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| The Hobbit Mechanics ↗ | Wizards of the CoastMatt Tabak | ||
| Magic Tournament Rules ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| Magic Comprehensive Rules ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| Reality Fracture Release Notes ↗ | Wizards of the Coast | ||
| Videos 3 | |||
| Nizzahon: Hobbit archetypes and mechanics ↗Creator-published chapter times; an early-format overview. Learn the recurring mechanics and what the colors are trying to do. This is an early-format overview; use the later deck lessons for developed strategy. Chapter labels use the guide’s color-pair names for the creator’s topics. Chapter basis: creator description. Learn the recurring mechanics and what the colors are trying to do. This is an early-format overview; use the later deck lessons for developed strategy. | YouTubeNizzahon | Timestamps checked | |
| Limited Resources 871 video ↗The episode was published September 18; the video was uploaded September 19. Jump points were selected from auto-generated captions. Marshall Sutcliffe and Paul Cheon’s late-format conversation. Listen for support, coherent decks, and why a card’s role matters more than a blanket ranking. The conversation includes Sealed experience; these selected jumps are not recorded draft picks. Chapter basis: editorial transcript. Marshall Sutcliffe and Paul Cheon’s late-format conversation. Listen for support, coherent decks, and why a card’s role matters more than a blanket ranking. | YouTubeMarshall Sutcliffe and Paul Cheon | Timestamps checked | |
| Actually The Best Format Ever? | The Hobbit Pick-Two Draft | MTG Arena ↗Actual YouTube captions and paused footage reviewed. First case has a visually confirmed committed pair; second records a narrated comparison without a reviewed final click. An August recording, not a late-September metagame claim. | YouTubeNumotTheNummy | ||
| Draft data 6 | |||
| 17Lands Pick-Two Draft public game dataset ↗File date and retrieval time are transport metadata, not the latest game date. | 17Lands | Captured | |
| 17Lands public datasets ↗ | 17Lands | — | — |
| 17Lands metric definitions ↗ | 17Lands | — | — |
| CC BY 4.0 ↗ | creativecommons.org | — | — |
| Cluster sandwich covariance reference ↗ | statsmodels.org | — | — |
| 17Lands Premier Draft public game dataset ↗File date and retrieval time are transport metadata, not the latest game date. | 17Lands | Captured | |
59 references · 60 source links. Published is the source’s own date; Checked is when the guide read it. Captured identifies a saved data snapshot. Chapter evidence is labelled in each video’s reference.
Evidence by page
9 pagesStart
Start →Event formats, kit contents and note-use rules follow Wizards’ event guidance, product specifications and the Magic Tournament Rules.
Collecting The Hobbit · The Hobbit products · The Hobbit Welcome Decks · All the Scene Cards from The Hobbit · Pick-Two Draft format · The Hobbit Dates and Details · The Hobbit event schedule · Magic Tournament Rules.
Products
Products →Collecting The Hobbit · The Hobbit products · The Hobbit Welcome Decks · All the Scene Cards from The Hobbit · TCGCSV product group 24683 · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · The Hobbit card, deck and collation data · Magic Tournament Rules.
Pack odds
Pack odds →Published percentages are rounded.
Collecting The Hobbit · The Hobbit products · The Hobbit Welcome Decks · All the Scene Cards from The Hobbit · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · The Hobbit card, deck and collation data.
Cards
Cards →Every The Hobbit main-set Play Booster common and uncommon, including common duals, plus all previously authored notes.
Named human grades are general Limited opinions, not Pick-Two win rates or an automatic pick order. New format applications are rules-derived; later authored strategy examples retain their separate sources.
Andrew Quinn’s August 3 initial-impression review, last updated August 29, supplies direct /10 grades. September strategy sources and original examples remain separately attributed; no consensus or format-specific grade is inferred.
Jobs are rules-derived roles, not human grades. A finisher needs a specific closing function and support conditions; rarity, grade, mana value and size alone do not establish it. Fine functions and legacy roles remain available.
Collecting The Hobbit · The Hobbit products · The Hobbit Welcome Decks · All the Scene Cards from The Hobbit · Marshall Sutcliffe · How to Booster Draft · Gavin Verhey · How to Build a Mana Curve · Reid Duke · The Basics of Mana · Gavin Verhey · Building a coherent Limited deck · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · The Hobbit card, deck and collation data · Goblin-town · Lake-town · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking's Halls · Marshall Sutcliffe & Paul Cheon · LR 871 · AAA · Late-format draft guidance · Hajime Madoka · Draft notes · Community guide · Drafting blue-black · Community guide · Late-format role players · September 9 community discussion · UB construction · Community example · Contender draft · September 6 community review · WU construction · September 2 Premier review · Keep the second color open · September 3 draft review · Kíli support · Community guide · Blue-white deck plans · Community deck critique · Payoffs and enablers · The Ultimate The Hobbit Limited Set Review · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes · Comprehensive Rules: Two-Headed Giant, shared turns, and card-specific rules.
Color pairs
Color pairs →Marshall Sutcliffe · How to Booster Draft · Gavin Verhey · How to Build a Mana Curve · Reid Duke · The Basics of Mana · Gavin Verhey · Building a coherent Limited deck · Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Prerelease Guide · Signals in Booster Draft · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Goblin-town · Lake-town · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking's Halls · Marshall Sutcliffe & Paul Cheon · LR 871 · AAA · Late-format draft guidance · Hajime Madoka · Draft notes · Community guide · Drafting blue-black · Community guide · Late-format role players · September 9 community discussion · UB construction · Community example · Contender draft · September 6 community review · WU construction · September 2 Premier review · Keep the second color open · September 3 draft review · Kíli support · Community guide · Blue-white deck plans · Community deck critique · Payoffs and enablers · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Lake-town
Lake-town →Identity. Lake-town.
Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The official guide identifies this uncommon two-color card as the archetype’s signpost. It is an identity cue, not an automatic pick order. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
September 6 community review · WU construction · Community guide · Blue-white deck plans · Community deck critique · Payoffs and enablers · Lake-town · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 12,927 games · 3,824 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 55.1%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 54.2%–55.9%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 36,876 games · 6,679 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 56.4%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 55.9%–56.9%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Blue–Black
Blue–Black →Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
Community guide · Drafting blue-black · September 9 community discussion · UB construction · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 2,221 games · 654 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 56.6%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 54.6%–58.5%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 5,361 games · 1,023 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 53.5%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 52.2%–54.8%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Goblin-town
Goblin-town →Identity. Goblin-town.
Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The official guide identifies this uncommon two-color card as the archetype’s signpost. It is an identity cue, not an automatic pick order. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
Marshall Sutcliffe & Paul Cheon · LR 871 · Hajime Madoka · Draft notes · Goblin-town · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 23,680 games · 6,631 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 59.8%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 59.2%–60.4%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 55,362 games · 9,606 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 58.1%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 57.7%–58.5%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Red–Green
Red–Green →Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Rules-derived plan; limited pair-specific coverage. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
AAA · Late-format draft guidance · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 513 games · 156 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 51.9%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 47.7%–56.0%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 1,117 games · 196 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 55.6%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 52.9%–58.3%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Green–White
Green–White →Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Rules-derived plan; limited pair-specific coverage. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. No dedicated human green-white plan has been established; use the general construction sources and the actual pool, not a claimed consensus engine.
The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 307 games · 94 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 54.4%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 49.2%–59.6%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 500 games · 101 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 50.0%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 45.7%–54.3%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
White–Black
White–Black →Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Rules-derived plan; limited pair-specific coverage. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
AAA · Late-format draft guidance · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 1,045 games · 301 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 59.3%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 56.4%–62.3%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 2,595 games · 456 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 57.5%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 55.6%–59.4%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Blue–Red
Blue–Red →Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Rules-derived plan; limited pair-specific coverage. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
AAA · Late-format draft guidance · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 576 games · 174 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 55.2%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 51.1%–59.3%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 1,611 games · 305 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 56.1%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 53.6%–58.6%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Mirkwood
Mirkwood →Identity. Mirkwood.
Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The official guide identifies this uncommon two-color card as the archetype’s signpost. It is an identity cue, not an automatic pick order. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
Marshall Sutcliffe & Paul Cheon · LR 871 · Hajime Madoka · Draft notes · Mirkwood · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 15,363 games · 4,375 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 58.0%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 57.2%–58.7%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 35,638 games · 6,270 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 57.4%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 56.9%–57.9%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Iron Hills
Iron Hills →Identity. Iron Hills.
Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The official guide identifies this uncommon two-color card as the archetype’s signpost. It is an identity cue, not an automatic pick order. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
September 3 draft review · Kíli support · Hajime Madoka · Draft notes · Iron Hills · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 12,594 games · 3,605 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 57.0%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 56.2%–57.9%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 34,129 games · 6,069 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 56.8%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 56.3%–57.3%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Elvenking’s Halls
Elvenking’s Halls →Identity. Elvenking's Halls.
Bombs in these colors. Highest recorded Pick-Two rare and mythic GIH rates with at least 100 card-in-hand instances. Checked .
Limits. Applies the existing four checks to the cards actually opened. No fixed Sealed quotas or measured pair strength are inferred. The official guide identifies this uncommon two-color card as the archetype’s signpost. It is an identity cue, not an automatic pick order. The pool tests, signal examples, second worked sequence and format notes are new applications of card rules to the existing authored plan. They follow the printed card interactions. Read the linked draft reviews alongside the cards and support this plan needs.
Community example · Contender draft · Elvenking's Halls · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 4,269 games · 1,281 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 52.9%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 51.4%–54.5%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 11,515 games · 2,184 distinct drafts. Pair game win rate: 52.5%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 51.6%–53.4%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
One group per pair: Lake-town · Blue–Black · Goblin-town · Red–Green · Green–White · White–Black · Blue–Red · Mirkwood · Iron Hills · Elvenking’s Halls
Build
Build →The pre-Reality Fracture convention used two kits per team. Confirm the allocation for any newly organized event; this is not the Arena Pick-Two queue.
The Hobbit products · Marshall Sutcliffe · How to Booster Draft · Reid Duke · The Basics of Mana · Sealed Deck · Building a Mana base · Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Prerelease Guide · Two Prerelease Changes Coming with Reality Fracture · The Hobbit Dates and Details · Sealed Deck format · The Basics of Booster Draft · Two-Headed Giant format · The Hobbit card catalog and prices · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes · Comprehensive Rules: Two-Headed Giant, shared turns, and card-specific rules · Magic Tournament Rules.
Mechanics
Mechanics →Terms evidenced in this guide’s Play card catalog, including eligible guest cards. Product-only Commander cards are outside this catalog.
Scryfall keywords are a starting point, not every term printed on a card. Exact Oracle text, card faces, layouts, and mana symbols supply additional documented matches.
The Hobbit products · Marshall Sutcliffe · How to Booster Draft · Gavin Verhey · How to Build a Mana Curve · Reid Duke · The Basics of Mana · Gavin Verhey · Building a coherent Limited deck · Pick-Two Draft format · Two Prerelease Changes Coming with Reality Fracture · The Hobbit Dates and Details · The Hobbit event schedule · Scryfall exact-card Oracle records · Marshall Sutcliffe & Paul Cheon · LR 871 · Hajime Madoka · Draft notes · September 9 community discussion · UB construction · Community example · Contender draft · Community guide · Blue-white deck plans · Community deck critique · Payoffs and enablers · Eliana Rabinowitz & Eric Levine · Official Hobbit release notes · Comprehensive Rules: Two-Headed Giant, shared turns, and card-specific rules · The Hobbit Mechanics · Magic Tournament Rules · Magic Comprehensive Rules · Reality Fracture Release Notes.
Practice
Practice →Illustrative practice selection from validated Play Booster slots, not an odds simulation or a recorded draft.
Chapter labels use the guide’s color-pair names for the creator’s topics.
The conversation includes Sealed experience; these selected jumps are not recorded draft picks.
Collecting The Hobbit · Nizzahon: Hobbit archetypes and mechanics · Limited Resources 871 video.
Win rates
Win rates →Intervals use game outcomes grouped by draft, allowing dependence within a draft while assuming independent draft clusters. Repeated players, skill, tracker-user selection and event stopping rules are not adjusted. Fewer than 30 drafts or zero estimated cluster variation suppresses the interval; 30 drafts is not a guarantee of accuracy. No interval is calculated from card-in-hand copies.
GIH counts copies in opening hands plus copies drawn, including repeat copies in one game. It is not a count of independent games. Tutored cards are excluded from this public-data calculation. A pair’s game win rate has a different denominator.
Pair tables use only games classified as the selected main colors with no splash. Drafts can appear in more than one pair if their colors changed between games. Overall card rates never fill a missing pair result. These observations reflect decks and players; use your deck’s needs to break the tie.
All cards includes every qualifying card once. Color lists include multicolor cards. Pair lists use the main spell’s castability, including hybrid mana; an off-color Adventure or activated ability still needs its own mana. Lands and colorless cards have their own section. Ties use sample size, then name.
Calculated from 17Lands public records; this saved snapshot may differ from current 17Lands tables.
17Lands Pick-Two Draft public game dataset · 17Lands public datasets · 17Lands metric definitions · CC BY 4.0 · Cluster sandwich covariance reference · 17Lands Premier Draft public game dataset.
Pick-Two Draft · games recorded –. 106,284 games · 30,579 distinct drafts. Overall game win rate: 56.5%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 56.2%–56.8%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
GIH WR = sum(won × (opening_hand + drawn)) / sum(opening_hand + drawn). Copies count separately; tutored is excluded.
Exactly two main_colors and empty splash_colors, using 17Lands classifications. No rank/player/deck-quality filter.
Minimum is display metadata only; every catalog card and all game rows are retained.
A draft can enter multiple pair subsets if its deck colors change between games.
Game win rate only. SE² = D/(D−1) × sum_d((wins_d − p × games_d)²) / N²; p = total wins / N. Approximate normal 95% interval clipped to [0,1]; suppressed for fewer than 30 drafts or zero estimated variance. Thirty is an editorial suppression threshold, not a guarantee of coverage.
Allows within-draft dependence, assumes independent draft clusters. Repeated players across drafts, tracker-user selection, event stopping rules, skill and deck quality are not adjusted. Descriptive, not causal; not a test of card strength. No card-copy Bernoulli intervals are emitted.
Object Last-Modified and retrieval time are transport metadata, not the latest game date.
Derived from 17Lands public game records; aggregation and intervals are modifications by this project.
Premier Draft · games recorded –. 241,727 games · 43,161 distinct drafts. Overall game win rate: 56.1%. 100+ card-in-hand instances for the default card display.
Draft-cluster robust approximate 95% CI: 55.9%–56.3%.
File dated · retrieved . Public game dataset · CC BY 4.0.
GIH WR = sum(won × (opening_hand + drawn)) / sum(opening_hand + drawn). Copies count separately; tutored is excluded.
Exactly two main_colors and empty splash_colors, using 17Lands classifications. No rank/player/deck-quality filter.
Minimum is display metadata only; every catalog card and all game rows are retained.
A draft can enter multiple pair subsets if its deck colors change between games.
Game win rate only. SE² = D/(D−1) × sum_d((wins_d − p × games_d)²) / N²; p = total wins / N. Approximate normal 95% interval clipped to [0,1]; suppressed for fewer than 30 drafts or zero estimated variance. Thirty is an editorial suppression threshold, not a guarantee of coverage.
Allows within-draft dependence, assumes independent draft clusters. Repeated players across drafts, tracker-user selection, event stopping rules, skill and deck quality are not adjusted. Descriptive, not causal; not a test of card strength. No card-copy Bernoulli intervals are emitted.
Object Last-Modified and retrieval time are transport metadata, not the latest game date.
Derived from 17Lands public game records; aggregation and intervals are modifications by this project.
Corrections
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