Pack odds · Outlaws of Thunder Junction

Play Booster Collector Booster Collector Booster Sample Pack Promo Pack Foil Promo Pack

36 packs per display

Play Booster

Magic cards

5 commons · 1 common or bonus-sheet replacement · 3 uncommons · 1 wildcard of any rarity · 1 rare or mythic rare · 1 breaking news · 1 foil of any rarity · 1 land

Display $193.12 · $5.36 per pack

Product & contents →

Modeled

Average card value $7.93.
Median $5.20.

Compare with market price or MSRP ↓

Chase pulls in this booster

The priciest card in each treatment, at Oct 25 singles. Rates are for the whole treatment, not this card.

Scapeshift

Special Guests · Borderless · SPG 0034

$57.44

20% per pack · Common or bonus-sheet replacement · The List · The Big Score or Special Guests

Mana Drain

Breaking News · Borderless · OTP 0011

$47.71

33.3333% per pack · Breaking News · Breaking News rare or mythic

Vaultborn Tyrant

The Big Score · BIG 0020

$38.69

20% per pack · Common or bonus-sheet replacement · The List · The Big Score or Special Guests

Bristly Bill, Spine Sower

Regular printing · OTJ 0157

$33.95

100% per pack · Wildcard of any rarity · Wildcard of any rarity

Inside a Play Booster

14 cards and an insert. Published slot breakdown; unpublished rates remain unknown.

5 ·Commons

1–5

Commons, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 36 packs
		100%	per position	≈180.0	per position · ≈180.0 per display
81 printings share this 100%; ≈1.23% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 81 in Cards → Corrupted ConvictionOTJ 0084$0.41 Highway RobberyOTJ 0129$0.34 Reckless LackeyOTJ 0140$0.32 Conduit PylonsOTJ 0254$0.31 Holy CowOTJ 0016$0.30 Dance of the TumbleweedsOTJ 0160$0.28 Ankle BiterOTJ 0153$0.27 Deadeye DuelistOTJ 0119$0.26 +73 more →

1 ·Common or bonus-sheet replacement

This replacement is one event per pack.

Common or bonus-sheet replacement, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 36 packs
	80%	per pack	≈28.8	per pack · ≈28.8 per display
81 printings share this 80%; ≈0.99% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 81 in Cards → Corrupted ConvictionOTJ 0084$0.41 Highway RobberyOTJ 0129$0.34 Reckless LackeyOTJ 0140$0.32 Conduit PylonsOTJ 0254$0.31 Holy CowOTJ 0016$0.30 Dance of the TumbleweedsOTJ 0160$0.28 Ankle BiterOTJ 0153$0.27 Deadeye DuelistOTJ 0119$0.26 +73 more →
	20%	per pack	≈7.2	per pack · ≈7.2 per display
40 printings share this 20%; ≈0.5% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 40 in Cards → ScapeshiftSPG 0034$57.44 Stoneforge MysticSPG 0029$40.32 Prismatic VistaSPG 0038$39.21 Vaultborn TyrantBIG 0020$38.69 Simulacrum SynthesizerBIG 0006$25.42 Sword of Wealth and PowerBIG 0026$20.19 Generous PlundererBIG 0011$18.86 Morbid OpportunistSPG 0032$17.36 +32 more →

3 ·Uncommons

7–9

Uncommons, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 36 packs
		100%	per position	≈108.0	per position · ≈108.0 per display
100 printings share this 100%; ≈1% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 100 in Cards → Lively DirgeOTJ 0093$5.71 Lavaspur BootsOTJ 0243$2.54 Forsaken MinerOTJ 0088$1.94 Arid ArchwayOTJ 0252$1.06 Magebane LizardOTJ 0134$0.94 Return the FavorOTJ 0142$0.88 Shoot the SheriffOTJ 0106$0.68 Doc Aurlock, Grizzled GeniusOTJ 0201$0.37 +92 more →

1 ·Wildcard of any rarity

One in 12 packs has a rare or mythic here.

Wildcard of any rarity, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 36 packs
		100%	per pack	≈36.0	per pack · ≈36.0 per display
281 printings share this 100%; ≈0.36% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 281 in Cards → Bristly Bill, Spine SowerOTJ 0157$33.95 Terror of the PeaksOTJ 0149$28.98 Tinybones, the PickpocketOTJ 0290$11.37 Tinybones, the PickpocketOTJ 0109$7.53 Kambal, Profiteering MayorOTJ 0211$6.94 Gisa, the HellraiserOTJ 0288$6.84 Gisa, the HellraiserOTJ 0089$6.70 Railway BrawlerOTJ 0175$6.26 +273 more →

1 ·Rare or mythic rare

Rare or mythic rare, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 36 packs
		100%	per pack	≈36.0	per pack · ≈36.0 per display
100 printings share this 100%; ≈1% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 100 in Cards → Bristly Bill, Spine SowerOTJ 0157$33.95 Terror of the PeaksOTJ 0149$28.98 Tinybones, the PickpocketOTJ 0290$11.37 Tinybones, the PickpocketOTJ 0109$7.53 Kambal, Profiteering MayorOTJ 0211$6.94 Gisa, the HellraiserOTJ 0288$6.84 Gisa, the HellraiserOTJ 0089$6.70 Railway BrawlerOTJ 0175$6.26 +92 more →

1 ·Breaking News

One in three packs has a rare or mythic in this slot.

Breaking News, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 36 packs
	66.6667%	per pack	≈24.0	per pack · ≈24.0 per display
20 printings share this 66.6667%; ≈3.33% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 20 in Cards → Decisive DenialOTP 0042$0.26 Journey to NowhereOTP 0003$0.24 Essence CaptureOTP 0010$0.20 FlingOTP 0024$0.19 Heartless PillageOTP 0014$0.18 Back for MoreOTP 0036$0.17 Ride DownOTP 0052$0.16 Skewer the CriticsOTP 0026$0.16 +12 more →
	33.3333%	per pack	≈12.0	per pack · ≈12.0 per display
45 printings share this 33.3333%; ≈0.74% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 45 in Cards → Mana DrainOTP 0011$47.71 Contagion EngineOTP 0061$13.21 ReanimateOTP 0018$9.81 Mindbreak TrapOTP 0012$9.28 Crackle with PowerOTP 0022$8.61 Imp's MischiefOTP 0015$8.57 ThoughtseizeOTP 0020$6.98 Force of VigorOTP 0029$6.03 +37 more →

1 ·foil of any rarity

Includes eligible main-set and bonus printings shown below. Special Guests are not in this foil slot.

foil of any rarity, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 36 packs
		100%	per pack	≈36.0	per pack · ≈36.0 per display
281 printings share this 100%; ≈0.36% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Oct 25Open all 281 in Cards → Bristly Bill, Spine SowerOTJ 0157$41.18 Terror of the PeaksOTJ 0149$34.27 Tinybones, the PickpocketOTJ 0290$12.61 Kellan, the KidOTJ 0294$12.22 Gisa, the HellraiserOTJ 0288$10.26 Spirebluff CanalOTJ 0304$9.63 Rakdos, the MuscleOTJ 0297$9.16 Tinybones, the PickpocketOTJ 0109$8.92 +273 more →

1 ·Land

Common dual lands 50%, Western landscape basics one in six, other basics the remainder. One in five of each group is foil.

Land, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 36 packs
	80%	per pack	≈28.8	per pack · ≈28.8 per display
25 printings share this 80%; ≈3.2% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 25 in Cards → Jagged BarrensOTJ 0259$0.41 SwampOTJ 0274$0.40 PlainsOTJ 0272$0.37 ForestOTJ 0276$0.36 Festering GulchOTJ 0257$0.35 IslandOTJ 0273$0.33 Lonely ArroyoOTJ 0260$0.32 MountainOTJ 0275$0.32 +17 more →
	20%	per pack	≈7.2	per pack · ≈7.2 per display
25 printings share this 20%; ≈0.8% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Oct 25Open all 25 in Cards → Jagged BarrensOTJ 0259$0.86 SwampOTJ 0274$0.49 ForestOTJ 0276$0.40 MountainOTJ 0275$0.38 Forlorn FlatsOTJ 0258$0.37 IslandOTJ 0273$0.36 Lush OasisOTJ 0261$0.35 PlainsOTJ 0272$0.35 +17 more →

+ · Insert

Token, art card or other insert; it is separate from the 14 Magic cards.

Official rates: Wizards · Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction ↗ checked Oct 12, 2026

About these numberscategory rates, bounds, per display, per position, what isn’t a pull

A category rate is the chance of any card in that category, not one particular card. Cards within a category are not necessarily equally likely.

“Under 1%” is an upper bound, not an exact rate. Rounded published percentages may not sum to 100%.

Per-display counts are the expected number of hits: rate × packs, multiplied by positions only for a per-position rate. The secondary ≥1 chance assumes independent packs: 1 − (1 − p)³⁶. It is omitted at 99% and above and where correlations prevent an estimate.

Per position describes one of several positions in the pack. “Everything else” fills that slot when the listed special category does not appear; a derived remainder uses the published rounded rates.

Not every card is a booster pull. Fixed decks, promos and product-exclusive cards have separate contents. Check a printing’s card page for its exact sources.

What a pack is worth

Modeled · Prices as of Oct 25, 2026 · Play Booster

Market: $6.97 · Oct 24, 2026MSRP: Not published / verified

Average: $7.93; card value per pack
Median: $5.20; half of modeled packs fall below this
Beats market price: 36.2%; against $6.97 per pack

30.8%

32.9%

25.6%

7.7%

market $6.97median $5.20

Under $3.49$3.49–<$6.97$6.97–<$13.94$13.94–<$34.85$34.85+

Share of 1,000,000 modeled packs
Beats $6.97 market price · 36.2%
Median $5.20

Each bar is a value range, not an equal dollar interval. Labels show value ranges. The exact modeled distribution determines the share that beats the price.

Where the value comes from

Contributions to the average of $7.93.

By treatment family

Value by slotExpand the model’s slot breakdown

Model slots

$0$7.93

Boxes, bundles & included extras

Boosters and verified fixed contents are counted once.

Product	Contents	Modeled	Market	vs price
Bundle9 × Play Booster + 1 × 31 fixed cards	9 × Play Booster + 1 × 31 fixed cards	$79.98	$119.08	-33%
Bundle Case54 × Play Booster + 1 × 186 fixed cards	54 × Play Booster + 1 × 186 fixed cards	$479.87	Not verified	—
Play Booster Box36 × Play Booster	36 × Play Booster	$285.63	$193.12	+48%
Play Booster Box Case216 × Play Booster	216 × Play Booster	$1,713.80	$1,023.12	+68%
Prerelease Pack1 × prerelease + 6 × Play Booster	1 × prerelease + 6 × Play Booster	$50.59	$42.11	+20%
Deluxe Commander Kit - Quick Draw1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	≥ $160.61	Not verified	—
Deluxe Commander Kit - Desert Bloom1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	≥ $136.23	Not verified	—
Deluxe Commander Kit - Most Wanted1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	≥ $185.64	Not verified	—
Deluxe Commander Kit - Grand Larceny1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	1 × Play Booster + 1 × dft play + 1 × fdn play + 1 × mkm play + 1 × Collector Booster Sample Pack + 1 × 101 fixed cards	≥ $201.81	$232.37	—

Bonus packs & insertsIncluded separately in the product totals above

Outlaws of Thunder Junction Prerelease Promo Pack

1 cards · average $2.98 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Play Booster.

Bristly Bill, Spine Sower · Foil · ≈1 in 140
Terror of the Peaks · Foil · ≈1 in 140
Kambal, Profiteering Mayor · Foil · ≈1 in 70
Three Steps Ahead · Foil · ≈1 in 70
Insatiable Avarice · Foil · ≈1 in 70
Annie Joins Up · Foil · ≈1 in 70
Smuggler's Surprise · Foil · ≈1 in 70
Aven Interrupter · Foil · ≈1 in 70

Aetherdrift Play Booster

14 cards · average $5.33 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Play Booster.

Chrome Mox · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 640
Monument to Endurance · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 58
Riverpyre Verge · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 77
The Aetherspark · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 116
Sunbillow Verge · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 77
Bleachbone Verge · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 77
Wastewood Verge · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 77
Full Throttle · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 58

Foundations Play Booster

14 cards · average $7.31 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Play Booster.

Doubling Season · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 116
Bloodthirsty Conqueror · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 133
Hare Apparent · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 11
Twinflame Tyrant · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 133
Mossborn Hydra · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 66
Sire of Seven Deaths · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 133
Banner of Kinship · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 66
An Offer You Can't Refuse · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 29

Murders at Karlov Manor Play Booster

14 cards · average at least $6.77 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Play Booster.

Undercity Sewers · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69
Thundering Falls · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69
Underground Mortuary · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69
Meticulous Archive · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69
Hedge Maze · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69
Delney, Streetwise Lookout · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 183
Shadowy Backstreet · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69
Raucous Theater · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 69

Collector Booster Sample Pack

2 cards · average $3.75 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Play Booster.

Bristly Bill, Spine Sower · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 324
Terror of the Peaks · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 324
Mana Drain · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 324
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower · Foil · ≈1 in 660
Mana Drain · Foil · ≈1 in 660
Terror of the Peaks · Foil · ≈1 in 660
Reanimate · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 162
Kambal, Profiteering Mayor · Nonfoil · ≈1 in 162

Cards behind the value

8 of 717 printing finishes

Largest contributions to the pack’s average.

Printing	Snapshot price	Chance in a pack	Adds to average
Mana DrainOTP 0011 · Breaking News · Borderless · Nonfoil$47.71 · ≈1 in 135	$47.71	≈1 in 135	$0.35
Bristly Bill, Spine SowerOTJ 0157 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$33.95 · ≈1 in 129	$33.95	≈1 in 129	$0.26
Vaultborn TyrantBIG 0020 · The Big Score · Nonfoil$38.69 · ≈1 in 163	$38.69	≈1 in 163	$0.24
Terror of the PeaksOTJ 0149 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$28.98 · ≈1 in 129	$28.98	≈1 in 129	$0.22
Lively DirgeOTJ 0093 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$5.71 · ≈1 in 31	$5.71	≈1 in 31	$0.19
Simulacrum SynthesizerBIG 0006 · The Big Score · Nonfoil$25.42 · ≈1 in 163	$25.42	≈1 in 163	$0.16
Sword of Wealth and PowerBIG 0026 · The Big Score · Nonfoil$20.19 · ≈1 in 163	$20.19	≈1 in 163	$0.12
Generous PlundererBIG 0011 · The Big Score · Nonfoil$18.86 · ≈1 in 163	$18.86	≈1 in 163	$0.12

Modeled per printing and finish; official tables above stay category rates.All modeled printings in Cards, by value →

About this modeldates, coverage, assumptions and the selling scenario

Model: MTGJSON 5.3.0+20261012 · Oct 12, 2026
Singles: Oct 25, 2026
Sealed: Oct 24, 2026
Simulation: 1,000,000 packs · xorshift32 + weighted alias draws; without replacement unless allowed

Singles capture/retrieval time is not an upstream price date. Simulated distribution is tied to this price snapshot until rebuilt.

Weighted pack configurations; weighted sequential draws within each sheet.

Within-sheet draws exclude previously drawn printings unless allowDuplicates is true.

Sheets are independent conditional on the selected configuration; physical display collation is unknown.

A foil sheet uses the exact printing’s foil price; special finish labels come from the catalog.

Modeled estimates from MTGJSON; these are not official Wizards odds.

A deterministic sample is an estimate, not a guarantee. Rare expensive outcomes can move the mean substantially; physical pack and box collation may differ.

Price coverage: 717 of 717 modeled printing finishes. Every modeled printing finish has a price in this snapshot.

Card values are not cash proceeds. An illustrative selling scenario keeps 85% of the value of cards priced at $2.00 or more. That gives about $4.07 per pack, or $146.54 for this display. This is a scenario, not a resale guarantee.