Pack odds · The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth
Draft Booster
9 commons · 1 common or foil · 3 uncommons · 1 rare or mythic rare · 1 basic land
Display $429.40 · $11.93 per pack
Product & contents →Chase pulls in this booster
The priciest card in each treatment, at Oct 25 singles. Rates are for the whole treatment, not this card.
Share not published per pack · Rare or mythic rare · Draft and Set Booster mythic printings
Share not published per pack · Rare or mythic rare · Draft and Set Booster rare printings
100% per position · Uncommons · Draft and Set Booster uncommon printings
Share not published per pack · Rare or mythic rare · Draft and Set Booster mythic printings
Share not published per pack · Rare or mythic rare · Draft and Set Booster mythic printings
100% per pack · Basic land · Basic lands
Inside a Draft Booster
15 cards and an insert. Published slot breakdown; unpublished rates remain unknown.
9 ·Commons
1–9| Card pool | Unit | Per display · 36 packs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | per position | ≈324.0 | per position · ≈324.0 per display | ||
110 printings share this 100%; ≈0.91% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 110 in Cards → | |||||
1 ·Common or foil
10WPN publishes a foil in 33% of Draft Boosters, replacing one common. The 67% remainder is calculated from that rounded rate.
| Card pool | Unit | Per display · 36 packs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | per pack | ≈24.1 | per pack · ≈24.1 per display | ||
110 printings share this 67%; ≈0.61% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 110 in Cards → | |||||
| 33% | per pack | ≈11.9 | per pack · ≈11.9 per display | ||
368 printings share this 33%; ≈0.09% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Oct 25Open all 368 in Cards → | |||||
3 ·Uncommons
11–13| Card pool | Unit | Per display · 36 packs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | per position | ≈108.0 | per position · ≈108.0 per display | ||
112 printings share this 100%; ≈0.89% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 112 in Cards → | |||||
1 ·Rare or mythic rare
14| Card pool | Unit | Per display · 36 packs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share not published | per pack | — | per pack · — per display | ||
100 printings · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 100 in Cards → | |||||
| Share not published | per pack | — | per pack · — per display | ||
36 printings · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 36 in Cards → | |||||
1 ·Basic land
15| Card pool | Unit | Per display · 36 packs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | per pack | ≈36.0 | per pack · ≈36.0 per display | ||
20 printings share this 100%; ≈5% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Oct 25Open all 20 in Cards → | |||||
+ · Insert
Token or advertising card. A sealed display also contains one foil Realms and Relics Box Topper.
Official rates: Mike Turian and Adam Styborski · Collecting LOTR ↗ published Sep 22, 2023
About these numberscategory rates, bounds, per display, per position, what isn’t a pull
A category rate is the chance of any card in that category, not one particular card. Cards within a category are not necessarily equally likely.
“Under 1%” is an upper bound, not an exact rate. Rounded published percentages may not sum to 100%.
Per-display counts are the expected number of hits: rate × packs, multiplied by positions only for a per-position rate. The secondary ≥1 chance assumes independent packs: 1 − (1 − p)36. It is omitted at 99% and above and where correlations prevent an estimate.
Per position describes one of several positions in the pack. “Everything else” fills that slot when the listed special category does not appear; a derived remainder uses the published rounded rates.
Not every card is a booster pull. Fixed decks, promos and product-exclusive cards have separate contents. Check a printing’s card page for its exact sources.
What a pack is worth
Market: $10.94 · Oct 24, 2026MSRP: Not published / verified
- Average
- $8.76
- card value per pack
- Median
- $5.42
- half of modeled packs fall below this
- Beats market price
- 15.8%
- against $10.94 per pack
- Share of 1,000,000 modeled packs
- Beats $10.94 market price · 15.8%
- Median $5.42
Where the value comes from
Contributions to the average of $8.76.
By treatment family
Value by slotExpand the model’s slot breakdown
Model slots
Boxes, bundles & included extras
Boosters and verified fixed contents are counted once.
| Product | Contents | Modeled | Market | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Booster Draft Pack3 × Draft Booster | 3 × Draft Booster | $26.29 | $32.33 | -19% |
| Draft Booster Box36 × Draft Booster + 1 × Realms and Relics Box Topper | 36 × Draft Booster + 1 × Realms and Relics Box Topper | $358.59 | $429.40 | -16% |
| Draft Booster Display Case216 × Draft Booster + 6 × Realms and Relics Box Topper | 216 × Draft Booster + 6 × Realms and Relics Box Topper | $2,151.57 | Not verified | — |
| Prerelease Pack1 × prerelease + 6 × Draft Booster | 1 × prerelease + 6 × Draft Booster | $69.37 | $142.88 | -51% |
| Box Topper Pack1 × Realms and Relics Box Topper | 1 × Realms and Relics Box Topper | $43.16 | $41.31 | +4% |
Bonus packs & insertsIncluded separately in the product totals above
Box Topper Pack
1 cards · average $43.16 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Draft Booster.
- Ancient Tomb · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- Gemstone Caverns · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- The Great Henge · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- The Ozolith · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- Cavern of Souls · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- Shadowspear · Foil · ≈1 in 30
- Cabal Coffers · Foil · ≈1 in 30
Prerelease Pack
2 cards · average $16.80 per bonus pack. Modeled chances below apply to that bonus pack, not to a loose Draft Booster.
- Delighted Halfling · Foil · ≈1 in 12
- The One Ring · Foil · ≈1 in 140
- Orcish Bowmasters · Foil · ≈1 in 70
- Sauron, the Dark Lord · Foil · ≈1 in 140
- Delighted Halfling · Foil · ≈1 in 70
- Mithril Coat · Foil · ≈1 in 70
- Gandalf, Friend of the Shire · Foil · ≈1 in 6
- Last March of the Ents · Foil · ≈1 in 140
Cards behind the value
8 of 736 printing finishesLargest contributions to the pack’s average.
| Printing | Snapshot price | Chance in a pack | Adds to average |
|---|---|---|---|
 The One RingLTR 0246 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$103.84 · ≈1 in 179 | $103.84 | ≈1 in 179 | $0.58 |
Orcish BowmastersLTR 0103 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$38.58 · ≈1 in 86 | $38.58 | ≈1 in 86 | $0.45 |
 Lórien RevealedLTR 0060 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$3.21 · ≈1 in 10 | $3.21 | ≈1 in 10 | $0.31 |
 Delighted HalflingLTR 0158 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$24.32 · ≈1 in 86 | $24.32 | ≈1 in 86 | $0.28 |
 Orcish BowmastersLTR 0433 · Borderless scenes · Nonfoil$48.40 · ≈1 in 172 | $48.40 | ≈1 in 172 | $0.28 |
 Mithril CoatLTR 0245 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$23.98 · ≈1 in 86 | $23.98 | ≈1 in 86 | $0.28 |
 Mirkwood BatsLTR 0095 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$1.40 · ≈1 in 11 | $1.40 | ≈1 in 11 | $0.13 |
 Last March of the EntsLTR 0172 · Regular printing · Nonfoil$19.21 · ≈1 in 179 | $19.21 | ≈1 in 179 | $0.11 |
About this modeldates, coverage, assumptions and the selling scenario
- Model
- MTGJSON 5.3.0+20261010 · Oct 10, 2026
- Singles
- Oct 25, 2026
- Sealed
- Oct 24, 2026
- Simulation
- 1,000,000 packs · xorshift32 + weighted alias draws; without replacement unless allowed
Singles capture/retrieval time is not an upstream price date. Simulated distribution is tied to this price snapshot until rebuilt.
Weighted pack configurations; weighted sequential draws within each sheet.
Color balancing is modeled as one weighted mono-color common of each color, then remaining weighted draws without replacement. MTGJSON flags balancing but does not specify factory collation; this is an approximation.
Within-sheet draws exclude previously drawn printings unless allowDuplicates is true.
Sheets are independent conditional on the selected configuration; physical display collation is unknown.
A foil sheet uses the exact printing’s foil price; special finish labels come from the catalog.
Modeled estimates from MTGJSON; these are not official Wizards odds.
Conditioned original Collector Boosters on the serialized 001/001 Ring already having been found. All unique-Ring configurations removed and remaining weights renormalized.
A deterministic sample is an estimate, not a guarantee. Rare expensive outcomes can move the mean substantially; physical pack and box collation may differ.
Price coverage: 736 of 736 modeled printing finishes. Every modeled printing finish has a price in this snapshot.
Card values are not cash proceeds. An illustrative selling scenario keeps 85% of the value of cards priced at $2.00 or more. That gives about $4.35 per pack, or $193.17 for this display. This is a scenario, not a resale guarantee.
MTGJSON LTC.json ↗ Oct 10, 2026 · MTGJSON LTR.json ↗ Oct 10, 2026 · MTGJSON PLST.json ↗ Oct 10, 2026 · MTGJSON PLTR.json ↗ Oct 10, 2026