Pack odds · The Hobbit · Magic Field Guides

Play Booster Collector Booster

30 packs per display

Play Booster

Magic cards
+ an insert

7 nonfoil commons · 3 nonfoil uncommons · 1 nonfoil wildcard · 1 nonfoil rare or mythic · 1 foil wildcard · 1 land

Display $160.02 (30 packs, $5.33 each)

Product →

Modeled

One Play Booster's cards are worth about $4.83 on average; half of packs are under $2.87. About 16.3% of packs beat their $5.61 loose-pack price. A 30-pack display holds about $166.46 of cards for $160.02.

Open for the experience. Buy singles when you want a particular card.

How we model it ↓

Chase pulls in this booster

The priciest card in each treatment, at Sep 26 singles. Rates are for the whole treatment, not this card.

Gleaming Splendor

Book cover · HOB 0239

$72.49

<1% per pack · Nonfoil wildcard · Book cover · mythic

Smaug the Magnificent

Dragon hoard frame · HOB 0229

$41.50

<1% per pack · Nonfoil wildcard · Dragon hoard frame · mythic

The Queen of Dale

Main set · HOB 0024

$17.07

11.1% per pack · Nonfoil rare or mythic · Main set · mythic

The Lonely Mountain

Borderless scene · HOB 0207

$5.94

1.8% per pack · Nonfoil rare or mythic · Borderless scene · rare

Inside a Play Booster

14 cards and an insert, in pack order. Rates below are Wizards’ official numbers.

7 ·Nonfoil commons

1–7

Nonfoil commons, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 30 packs
		7.8%	per pack, group of 7	≈91.3% ≥1≈2.3	per pack, group of 7 · ≈2.3 per display · ≈91.3% ≥1
2 printings share this 7.8%; ≈3.9% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 2 in Cards → Thorin's Last StandHOB 0209$0.21 Rage into the ValleyHOB 0200$0.18
Main set · commoneverything else	Most packs (≈92.2%)

3 ·Nonfoil uncommons

8–10

Nonfoil uncommons, official rates
Card pool			Unit	Per display · 30 packs
		5.5%	per pack, group of 3	≈81.7% ≥1≈1.6	per pack, group of 3 · ≈1.6 per display · ≈81.7% ≥1
4 printings share this 5.5%; ≈1.38% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 4 in Cards → Troop of PoniesHOB 0199$0.38 Thorin OakenshieldHOB 0202$0.32 Dreaded Bat-CloudHOB 0206$0.30 Gandalf, Spark StarterHOB 0203$0.27
		10.9%	per pack, group of 3	≈96.9% ≥1≈3.3	per pack, group of 3 · ≈3.3 per display · ≈96.9% ≥1
6 printings share this 10.9%; ≈1.82% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 6 in Cards → Thranduil, Sindarin Liege // Silvan RallyHOB 0233$0.34 Bofur, Reliable Guardian // Concerted CareHOB 0215$0.32 Bilbo, Luckwearer // Burglar's PlotHOB 0218$0.30 Glóin the Mighty // Easy PickingsHOB 0227$0.27 Great Ugly-Looking Goblin // Clap! Snap!HOB 0223$0.27 Iron Hills BlacksmithHOB 0216$0.25
Main set · uncommoneverything else	Most packs, ≈83.6–89.1%

1 ·Nonfoil wildcard

Nonfoil wildcard, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 30 packs
	74.17%	per pack	≈22.3	per pack · ≈22.3 per display
60 printings share this 74.17%; ≈1.24% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 60 in Cards → Wood ElvesHOB 0142$0.26 AttercopHOB 0116$0.23 Hobbit HoleHOB 0184$0.22 QuarrelHOB 0135$0.22 Warg TacticsHOB 0139$0.21 Beorn, Reluctant Host // Till and TendHOB 0118$0.20 Great Fierce BeeHOB 0073$0.20 Bilbo's Deadly SliceHOB 0062$0.19 +52 more →
	3.9%	per pack	≈69.7% ≥1≈1.2	per pack · ≈1.2 per display · ≈69.7% ≥1
55 printings share this 3.9%; ≈0.07% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 55 in Cards → Elven Raft-SteererHOB 0037$0.34 Troop of PoniesHOB 0003$0.33 Beorn's HospitalityHOB 0120$0.28 Thrór's MapHOB 0179$0.28 Dwarven MaulerHOB 0095$0.27 Silvan RevelerHOB 0163$0.27 Thranduil, Sindarin Liege // Silvan RallyHOB 0166$0.27 Bifur, Melodic RiderHOB 0147$0.26 +47 more →
	17.3%	per pack	≈5.2	per pack · ≈5.2 per display
53 printings share this 17.3%; ≈0.33% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 53 in Cards → Wizard's StaffHOB 0059$3.49 Belladonna TookHOB 0004$2.75 Radagast of RhosgobelHOB 0136$2.40 Bilbo's GambitHOB 0005$1.38 My Precious // Allure of PowerHOB 0176$1.23 Kíli the ResourcefulHOB 0017$1.16 Smaug, Wicked WormHOB 0164$1.16 The Sackville-BagginsesHOB 0083$1.14 +45 more →
	2.3%	per pack	≈50.2% ≥1≈0.7	per pack · ≈0.7 per display · ≈50.2% ≥1
15 printings share this 2.3%; ≈0.15% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 15 in Cards → Gleaming SplendorHOB 0015$33.21 Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0110$20.79 The Queen of DaleHOB 0024$17.07 Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0177$10.95 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0170$9.49 Bilbo, Thief in the NightHOB 0033$7.44 Dancing from Dark to DawnHOB 0123$7.02 Beorn the FierceHOB 0119$5.32 +7 more →

	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
2 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 2 in Cards → Thorin's Last StandHOB 0209$0.21 Rage into the ValleyHOB 0200$0.18
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
4 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 4 in Cards → Troop of PoniesHOB 0199$0.38 Thorin OakenshieldHOB 0202$0.32 Dreaded Bat-CloudHOB 0206$0.30 Gandalf, Spark StarterHOB 0203$0.27
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
9 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 9 in Cards → The Lonely MountainHOB 0207$5.94 The Great GoblinHOB 0201$3.27 Glamdring, Foe-hammer // Gleam of DeathHOB 0204$2.70 Dáin's CompanyHOB 0212$1.75 The Eagles Are Coming!HOB 0205$1.68 Thranduil's CompanyHOB 0213$1.66 Bolg's CompanyHOB 0211$1.24 Chief Warg's CompanyHOB 0208$1.13 +1 more →
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
6 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 6 in Cards → Thranduil, Sindarin Liege // Silvan RallyHOB 0233$0.34 Bofur, Reliable Guardian // Concerted CareHOB 0215$0.32 Bilbo, Luckwearer // Burglar's PlotHOB 0218$0.30 Glóin the Mighty // Easy PickingsHOB 0227$0.27 Great Ugly-Looking Goblin // Clap! Snap!HOB 0223$0.27 Iron Hills BlacksmithHOB 0216$0.25
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
11 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 11 in Cards → Belladonna TookHOB 0214$4.52 My Precious // Allure of PowerHOB 0235$2.71 Elven PassageHOB 0238$1.65 The Notary HobbitsHOB 0232$1.59 Desolation of SmaugHOB 0226$1.44 Desert Were-WormHOB 0225$1.15 Head of the HuntHOB 0224$0.90 Azog, Moria's RuinHOB 0222$0.80 +3 more →
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
8 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 8 in Cards → Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0229$41.50 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0234$26.07 The Queen of DaleHOB 0217$20.31 Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0236$15.99 Beorn the FierceHOB 0230$13.49 Bilbo, Thief in the NightHOB 0219$10.27 Dancing from Dark to DawnHOB 0231$10.24 Fateful DiscoveryHOB 0220$5.85
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
4 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 4 in Cards → The Lonely MountainHOB 0248$16.27 Smaug, Wicked WormHOB 0245$10.58 Thranduil, the ElvenkingHOB 0246$7.73 The Lord of the EaglesHOB 0240$2.39
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
6 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 6 in Cards → Gleaming SplendorHOB 0239$72.49 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0247$62.42 Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // FlameshapeHOB 0242$22.92 Thorin, Mountain-kingHOB 0243$17.93 Bard, King of DaleHOB 0244$17.81 Gollum, Riddle MasterHOB 0241$11.78

1 ·Nonfoil rare or mythic

Nonfoil rare or mythic, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 30 packs
	82.9%	per pack	≈24.9	per pack · ≈24.9 per display
53 printings share this 82.9%; ≈1.56% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 53 in Cards → Wizard's StaffHOB 0059$3.49 Belladonna TookHOB 0004$2.75 Radagast of RhosgobelHOB 0136$2.40 Bilbo's GambitHOB 0005$1.38 My Precious // Allure of PowerHOB 0176$1.23 Kíli the ResourcefulHOB 0017$1.16 Smaug, Wicked WormHOB 0164$1.16 The Sackville-BagginsesHOB 0083$1.14 +45 more →
	11.1%	per pack	≈97.1% ≥1≈3.3	per pack · ≈3.3 per display · ≈97.1% ≥1
15 printings share this 11.1%; ≈0.74% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 15 in Cards → Gleaming SplendorHOB 0015$33.21 Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0110$20.79 The Queen of DaleHOB 0024$17.07 Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0177$10.95 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0170$9.49 Bilbo, Thief in the NightHOB 0033$7.44 Dancing from Dark to DawnHOB 0123$7.02 Beorn the FierceHOB 0119$5.32 +7 more →
	1.8%	per pack	≈42.0% ≥1≈0.5	per pack · ≈0.5 per display · ≈42.0% ≥1
9 printings share this 1.8%; ≈0.2% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 9 in Cards → The Lonely MountainHOB 0207$5.94 The Great GoblinHOB 0201$3.27 Glamdring, Foe-hammer // Gleam of DeathHOB 0204$2.70 Dáin's CompanyHOB 0212$1.75 The Eagles Are Coming!HOB 0205$1.68 Thranduil's CompanyHOB 0213$1.66 Bolg's CompanyHOB 0211$1.24 Chief Warg's CompanyHOB 0208$1.13 +1 more →
	2.3%	per pack	≈50.2% ≥1≈0.7	per pack · ≈0.7 per display · ≈50.2% ≥1
11 printings share this 2.3%; ≈0.21% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 11 in Cards → Belladonna TookHOB 0214$4.52 My Precious // Allure of PowerHOB 0235$2.71 Elven PassageHOB 0238$1.65 The Notary HobbitsHOB 0232$1.59 Desolation of SmaugHOB 0226$1.44 Desert Were-WormHOB 0225$1.15 Head of the HuntHOB 0224$0.90 Azog, Moria's RuinHOB 0222$0.80 +3 more →

	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
8 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 8 in Cards → Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0229$41.50 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0234$26.07 The Queen of DaleHOB 0217$20.31 Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0236$15.99 Beorn the FierceHOB 0230$13.49 Bilbo, Thief in the NightHOB 0219$10.27 Dancing from Dark to DawnHOB 0231$10.24 Fateful DiscoveryHOB 0220$5.85
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
4 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 4 in Cards → The Lonely MountainHOB 0248$16.27 Smaug, Wicked WormHOB 0245$10.58 Thranduil, the ElvenkingHOB 0246$7.73 The Lord of the EaglesHOB 0240$2.39
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
6 printings · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 6 in Cards → Gleaming SplendorHOB 0239$72.49 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0247$62.42 Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // FlameshapeHOB 0242$22.92 Thorin, Mountain-kingHOB 0243$17.93 Bard, King of DaleHOB 0244$17.81 Gollum, Riddle MasterHOB 0241$11.78

1 ·Foil wildcard

Foil wildcard, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 30 packs
	59.8%	per pack	≈17.9	per pack · ≈17.9 per display
60 printings share this 59.8%; ≈1% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 60 in Cards → Giant's BoulderHOB 0173$1.49 Plunder the TrollshawsHOB 0051$0.34 Wood ElvesHOB 0142$0.34 Hobbit HoleHOB 0184$0.31 AttercopHOB 0116$0.29 Óin the BraveHOB 0106$0.29 Smaug, the Great Calamity // Spew FlameHOB 0109$0.29 Beorn, Reluctant Host // Till and TendHOB 0118$0.28 +52 more →
	29.3%	per pack	≈8.8	per pack · ≈8.8 per display
55 printings share this 29.3%; ≈0.53% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 55 in Cards → Troop of PoniesHOB 0003$0.61 Beorn's HospitalityHOB 0120$0.36 Dáin, Lord of the Iron HillsHOB 0008$0.36 Thrór's MapHOB 0179$0.34 Mirkwood PathmakerHOB 0129$0.33 Bifur, Melodic RiderHOB 0147$0.32 Elven Raft-SteererHOB 0037$0.32 Old Fat Spider Can't See MeHOB 0050$0.32 +47 more →
	7.1%	per pack	≈89.0% ≥1≈2.1	per pack · ≈2.1 per display · ≈89.0% ≥1
53 printings share this 7.1%; ≈0.13% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 53 in Cards → Wizard's StaffHOB 0059$4.24 Radagast of RhosgobelHOB 0136$3.26 Belladonna TookHOB 0004$3.22 My Precious // Allure of PowerHOB 0176$2.18 Smaug, Wicked WormHOB 0164$2.11 Bilbo's GambitHOB 0005$2.00 Kíli the ResourcefulHOB 0017$1.73 Through the Forest GateHOB 0137$1.50 +45 more →
	1%	per pack	≈26.0% ≥1≈0.3	per pack · ≈0.3 per display · ≈26.0% ≥1
15 printings share this 1%; ≈0.07% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 15 in Cards → Gleaming SplendorHOB 0015$41.28 Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0110$23.19 The Queen of DaleHOB 0024$19.03 Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0177$13.92 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0170$11.28 Bilbo, Thief in the NightHOB 0033$11.20 Dancing from Dark to DawnHOB 0123$8.89 Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // FlameshapeHOB 0096$6.00 +7 more →

	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
2 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 2 in Cards → Rage into the ValleyHOB 0200$0.29 Thorin's Last StandHOB 0209$0.26
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
4 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 4 in Cards → Troop of PoniesHOB 0199$0.42 Gandalf, Spark StarterHOB 0203$0.36 Thorin OakenshieldHOB 0202$0.36 Dreaded Bat-CloudHOB 0206$0.32
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
9 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 9 in Cards → The Lonely MountainHOB 0207$10.29 The Great GoblinHOB 0201$6.23 Glamdring, Foe-hammer // Gleam of DeathHOB 0204$5.34 The Eagles Are Coming!HOB 0205$4.20 Thranduil's CompanyHOB 0213$4.12 Dáin's CompanyHOB 0212$2.75 Bolg's CompanyHOB 0211$2.25 Chief Warg's CompanyHOB 0208$1.69 +1 more →
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
6 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 6 in Cards → Thranduil, Sindarin Liege // Silvan RallyHOB 0233$0.37 Glóin the Mighty // Easy PickingsHOB 0227$0.36 Bilbo, Luckwearer // Burglar's PlotHOB 0218$0.35 Bofur, Reliable Guardian // Concerted CareHOB 0215$0.34 Iron Hills BlacksmithHOB 0216$0.34 Great Ugly-Looking Goblin // Clap! Snap!HOB 0223$0.31
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
11 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 11 in Cards → Belladonna TookHOB 0214$5.97 My Precious // Allure of PowerHOB 0235$4.87 The Notary HobbitsHOB 0232$2.85 Elven PassageHOB 0238$2.44 Desolation of SmaugHOB 0226$1.90 Azog, Moria's RuinHOB 0222$1.70 Desert Were-WormHOB 0225$1.69 Head of the HuntHOB 0224$1.69 +3 more →
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
8 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 8 in Cards → Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0229$82.01 The Queen of DaleHOB 0217$42.13 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0234$33.40 Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0236$26.28 Beorn the FierceHOB 0230$22.96 Bilbo, Thief in the NightHOB 0219$20.74 Dancing from Dark to DawnHOB 0231$11.99 Fateful DiscoveryHOB 0220$9.36
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
4 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 4 in Cards → The Lonely MountainHOB 0248$19.19 Smaug, Wicked WormHOB 0245$18.51 Thranduil, the ElvenkingHOB 0246$14.61 The Lord of the EaglesHOB 0240$5.03
	<1%	per pack	<26.1% ≥1<0.3	per pack · <0.3 per display · <26.1% ≥1
6 printings · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 6 in Cards → Gleaming SplendorHOB 0239$141.21 The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0247$75.95 Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // FlameshapeHOB 0242$38.86 Thorin, Mountain-kingHOB 0243$31.03 Bard, King of DaleHOB 0244$28.20 Gollum, Riddle MasterHOB 0241$17.37

1 ·Land

Land, official rates
Card pool		Unit	Per display · 30 packs
	26.7%	per pack	≈8.0	per pack · ≈8.0 per display
5 printings share this 26.7%; ≈5.34% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 5 in Cards → PlainsHOB 0189$0.17 IslandHOB 0190$0.14 MountainHOB 0192$0.14 SwampHOB 0191$0.13 ForestHOB 0193$0.11
	6.7%	per pack	≈87.5% ≥1≈2.0	per pack · ≈2.0 per display · ≈87.5% ≥1
5 printings share this 6.7%; ≈1.34% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 5 in Cards → ForestHOB 0193$0.22 MountainHOB 0192$0.22 SwampHOB 0191$0.21 IslandHOB 0190$0.20 PlainsHOB 0189$0.18
	13.3%	per pack	≈98.6% ≥1≈4.0	per pack · ≈4.0 per display · ≈98.6% ≥1
5 printings share this 13.3%; ≈2.66% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 5 in Cards → MountainHOB 0197$0.35 PlainsHOB 0194$0.31 SwampHOB 0196$0.28 ForestHOB 0198$0.27 IslandHOB 0195$0.25
	3.3%	per pack	≈63.5% ≥1≈1.0	per pack · ≈1.0 per display · ≈63.5% ≥1
5 printings share this 3.3%; ≈0.66% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 5 in Cards → ForestHOB 0198$0.41 SwampHOB 0196$0.37 IslandHOB 0195$0.35 MountainHOB 0197$0.34 PlainsHOB 0194$0.32
	40%	per pack	≈12.0	per pack · ≈12.0 per display
5 printings share this 40%; ≈8% each if equally weighted · Nonfoil prices, Sep 26Open all 5 in Cards → MirkwoodHOB 0188$0.19 Goblin-townHOB 0183$0.17 Elvenking's HallsHOB 0182$0.15 Iron HillsHOB 0185$0.15 Lake-townHOB 0186$0.13
	10%	per pack	≈95.8% ≥1≈3.0	per pack · ≈3.0 per display · ≈95.8% ≥1
5 printings share this 10%; ≈2% each if equally weighted · Foil prices, Sep 26Open all 5 in Cards → MirkwoodHOB 0188$0.30 Iron HillsHOB 0185$0.24 Goblin-townHOB 0183$0.18 Lake-townHOB 0186$0.18 Elvenking's HallsHOB 0182$0.16

+ · Insert

One nonfoil token.

Official rates: Wizards: Collecting The Hobbit ↗ published Jul 18, 2026 · WPN: The Hobbit products ↗ checked Sep 26, 2026

About these numberscategory rates, bounds, per display, per position, what isn’t a pull

A category rate is the chance of any card in that category, not one particular card. Cards within a category are not necessarily equally likely.

“Under 1%” is an upper bound, not an exact rate. Rounded published percentages may not sum to 100%.

Per-display counts are the expected number of hits: rate × packs, multiplied by positions only for a per-position rate. The secondary ≥1 chance assumes independent packs: 1 − (1 − p)³⁰. It is omitted at 99% and above and where correlations prevent an estimate.

Per position describes one of several positions in the pack. “Everything else” fills that slot when the listed special category does not appear; a derived remainder uses the published rounded rates.

Not every card is a booster pull. Fixed decks, promos and product-exclusive cards have separate contents. Check a printing’s card page for its exact sources.

What a pack is worth Modeled

Play BoosterModel Sep 25 · Singles Sep 26 · Sealed Sep 25

A pack’s value varies widely. These are model estimates using the dated singles snapshot, before fees, tax or shipping.

Average: $4.83; per pack
Median: $2.87; half of packs are below this
Beat the priceBeat $5.61: 16.3%; against $5.61 per pack

45.4%

31.5%

6.8%

2.3%

2.6%

2.8%

1.6%

pack price $5.61median $2.87

$1.40–$2.80$2.81–$4.20$4.21–$5.60$5.61–$8.41$8.42–$11.21$11.22–$16.82$16.83–$28.04$28.05+

$1.40$2.81$4.21$5.61$8.42$11.22$16.83$28.05

Share of 1,000,000 modeled packs
Beats the $5.61 pack price · 16.3%
Median $2.87

Each bar is a value range, not an equal dollar interval. Empty lowest ranges omitted. Labels show where each range starts. The exact modeled distribution determines the share that beats the price.

Where the value comes from

Two views of the same $4.83, on one shared scale.

By slot, in pack order

By treatment family

$0$4.83

Displays, cases & bonus pack

Model parts are added once; market prices Sep 25.

Product	Contents	Modeled	Market	vs market
Play Booster Display30 × Play Booster + 1 × Box Topper	30 × Play Booster + 1 × Box Topper	$166.46	$160.02	+4%
Play Booster Case (6 displays / 180 packs)180 × Play Booster + 6 × Box Topper	180 × Play Booster + 6 × Box Topper	$998.74	$909.55	+10%
Collector Booster Display (12 packs)12 × Collector Booster + 1 × Box Topper	12 × Collector Booster + 1 × Box Topper	$688.14	$698.73	-2%
Collector Booster Case (6 displays / 72 packs)72 × Collector Booster + 6 × Box Topper	72 × Collector Booster + 6 × Box Topper	$4,128.83	$5,184.63	-20%
Box Topper pack1 × Box Topper	1 × Box Topper	$21.67	$31.56	-31%

Cards behind the value

8 of 496 printing finishes

Largest contributions to the pack’s average.

Printing	Snapshot price	Chance in a pack	Adds to average
Gleaming SplendorHOB 0015 · Main set · Nonfoil$33.21 · ≈1 in 114	$33.21	≈1 in 114	$0.29
Smaug the MagnificentHOB 0110 · Main set · Nonfoil$20.79 · ≈1 in 114	$20.79	≈1 in 114	$0.18
The Queen of DaleHOB 0024 · Main set · Nonfoil$17.07 · ≈1 in 114	$17.07	≈1 in 114	$0.15
Orcrist, Goblin-cleaverHOB 0177 · Main set · Nonfoil$10.95 · ≈1 in 114	$10.95	≈1 in 114	$0.10
Gleaming SplendorHOB 0239 · Book cover · Nonfoil$72.49 · ≈1 in 801	$72.49	≈1 in 801	$0.09
The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0247 · Book cover · Nonfoil$62.42 · ≈1 in 801	$62.42	≈1 in 801	$0.08
The Arkenstone // Seek the HeartHOB 0170 · Main set · Nonfoil$9.49 · ≈1 in 134	$9.49	≈1 in 134	$0.07
Wizard's StaffHOB 0059 · Main set · Nonfoil$3.49 · ≈1 in 50	$3.49	≈1 in 50	$0.07

Modeled per printing and finish; official tables above stay category rates.All modeled printings in Cards, by value →

About this modeldates, coverage, assumptions and the selling scenario

Model: MTGJSON 5.3.0+20260925 · Sep 25, 2026
Singles: Sep 26, 2026
Sealed: Sep 25, 2026
Simulation: 1,000,000 packs · xorshift32 + weighted alias draws; without replacement unless allowed

Singles capture/retrieval time is not an upstream price date. Simulated distribution is tied to this price snapshot until rebuilt.

Weighted pack configurations; weighted sequential draws within each sheet.

Within-sheet draws exclude previously drawn printings unless allowDuplicates is true.

Sheets are independent conditional on the selected configuration; physical display collation is unknown.

A foil sheet uses the exact printing’s foil price; special finish labels come from the catalog.

Modeled estimates from MTGJSON; these are not official Wizards odds.

A deterministic sample is an estimate, not a guarantee. Rare expensive outcomes can move the mean substantially; physical pack and box collation may differ.

Price coverage: 496 of 496 modeled printing finishes. Every modeled printing finish has a price in this snapshot.

Card values are not cash proceeds. An illustrative selling scenario keeps 85% of the value of cards priced at $2.00 or more. That gives about $1.74 per pack, or $70.73 for this display. This is a scenario, not a resale guarantee.

MTGJSON HOB.json ↗ Sep 25, 2026 · MTGJSON HOC.json ↗ Sep 25, 2026