Chance-Met Elves LTR 0157 · common

Chance-Met Elves · {2}{G} · Creature — Elf Warrior · Whenever you scry, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature. This ability triggers only once each turn. · Power / toughness: 3/2 · "It is said, 'Go not to the Elves for counsel, for they will say both no and yes.'" —Frodo
- Price
- from $0.142 printings
- Win rate
- 50.7% GIH 25,424 instances · Premier Draft
Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023 · 17Lands - Job
- Payoffs
Game-in-hand win rate, all deck colors. 12,885 wins in 25,424 card-in-hand instances.
20,441 distinct games · 6,441 distinct drafts · games recorded Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023.
17Lands file dated Aug 30, 2023 · 100-instance minimum · 17Lands public data ↗
Play
Repeated scry events grow this creature, but only once each turn. Scrying two cards is one event, not two.
More
- One-pick Draft
- Repeated scry events grow this creature, but only once each turn. Scrying two cards is one event, not two.
Draft data
−4.9 pp vs 55.6% average · 25,424 instances
Premier Draft · Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023 · average from 980,485 games
#223 of 251 nonland cards by win rate · last seen around pick 6.9 on average (326,128 packs).
29 of 38 green cards · 17 of 19 green common cards.
95,266.9 matches
Pick and maindeck observations: Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023. Played/benched cells use matches when available; the drawn cell uses game instances.
○ Opening hand 50.8% · 10,057 instances
● Drawn later 50.6% · 15,367 instances
In hand 50.7% · 25,424 instances
Unseen in deck 48.7% · 32,738 instances
+1.9 percentage points when drawn
Compared with green cards
Ranks require 100 observations for that metric; comparisons are descriptive, not a pick order. Pick ranks put earlier picks first.
Best decks for it
no-splash decks only · card-level in-hand rates · 100 minimum
Black–Green BG52.6%1,543 instancesGreen–White GW51.9%878 instancesRed–Green RG51.6%974 instancesBlue–Green UG51.5%12,136 instancesEach tick is this card’s all-decks rate (50.7% · 25,424 instances). A high card rate does not prove that splashing it will improve your deck.
Best with
Adjusted associations, ranked by confidence.
Lothlórien Lookout+3.5 pp24,432 games with both in the deck · 8,011 both drawnHow to read this
Observational, not a causal bonus. Both cards must be in the deck. Drawn means opening hand or normally drawn; each card counts once per game. Game-level approximate intervals do not account for repeated games by the same drafter.
At least 100 games in each of four drawn/not-drawn groups; adjusted for game length and screened by the lower confidence bound. Do not add these points to a card’s win rate.
Where it sits in the set
Above 11% of 251 nonland cards with 100+ instances, in win-rate order.
17Lands public datasets ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗ · Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023
Pick a printing for its prices and pull odds.
| Finish | Found in | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfoil | draft · set · jumpstart-v2 | $0.14 |
| Foil | Collector Booster · draft · set | $0.25 |
Foil in a draft · Modeled · About 1 in 675 packs (0.15%) · 5.2% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →
Nonfoil in a draft · Modeled · About 1 in 11 packs (9.43%) · 97.2% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →
Foil in a set · Modeled · About 1 in 225 packs (0.44%) · 12.5% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →
Nonfoil in a set · Modeled · About 1 in 23 packs (4.26%) · 72.9% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →
Foil in a Collector Booster · Modeled · About 1 in 25 packs (3.95%) · 38.4% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →
Nonfoil in a jumpstart-v2 · Modeled · About 1 in 5 packs (20.00%) · 98.2% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →
How to pull it
Official rates for the whole category, not this card.
| Booster | Slot | Per pack | Category |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Booster | Commons | 100% per position | Draft and Set Booster common printings |
| Draft Booster | Common or foil | 67% | Draft and Set Booster common printings |
| Draft Booster | Common or foil | 33% | Main set and booster-fun foils |
| Set Booster | Ten other Magic cards | 100% | Other Draft and Set Booster printings |
| Set Booster | Guaranteed traditional foil | 100% | Main set and booster-fun foils |
| Collector Booster | Foil commons | 100% per position | Main set · common |
| Collector Booster | Foil common or rare Sol Ring treatment | Regular cards in this group; no separate share published | Main set · common |
Mike Turian and Adam Styborski · Collecting LOTR ↗ · Sep 22, 2023
Details & sources
- Legal in
- Historic · Timeless · Modern · Legacy · Pauper · Vintage · CommanderLimited eligibility depends on the event and its booster pool.
- Illustration
- Irvin Rodriguez, LTR 157 · Scryfall ↗
- More like this
- Regular printing printings →
- Sources
- Mike Turian and Adam Styborski · Collecting LOTR · Sep 22, 2023
Scryfall USD, snapshot Oct 25
Comprehensive Rules ↗

