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Deceive the Messenger LTR 0047 · common

Deceive the Messenger · {U} · Instant · Target creature gets -3/-0 until end of turn. Amass Orcs 1. (Put a +1/+1 counter on an Army you control. It's also an Orc. If you don't control an Army, create a 0/0 black Orc Army creature token first.) · "Tell Gandalf that he must seek my aid at once." —Saruman

Deceive the Messenger · {U} · Instant · Target creature gets -3/-0 until end of turn. Amass Orcs 1. (Put a +1/+1 counter on an Army you control. It's also an Orc. If you don't control an Army, create a 0/0 black Orc Army creature token first.) · "Tell Gandalf that he must seek my aid at once." —Saruman

Price
from $0.182 printings
Win rate
58.8% GIH 131,800 instances · Premier Draft
Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023 · 17Lands

Game-in-hand win rate, all deck colors. 77,514 wins in 131,800 card-in-hand instances.

112,401 distinct games · 32,534 distinct drafts · games recorded Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023.

17Lands file dated Aug 30, 2023 · 100-instance minimum · 17Lands public data ↗

Draft data

58.8%when drawn (GIH)

+3.2 pp vs 55.6% average · 131,800 instances

Premier Draft · Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023 · average from 980,485 games

#57 of 251 nonland cards by win rate · last seen around pick 6.1 on average (326,169 packs).

9 of 38 blue cards · 4 of 19 blue common cards.

Taken at pick8.166,566 picks
Makes the deck61.8%66,566 picks with known usage
When played56.3%217,748.7 matchesBenched 55.7%
115,006.3 matches
When drawn58.8%131,800 instances

Pick and maindeck observations: Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023. Played/benched cells use matches when available; the drawn cell uses game instances.

○ Opening hand 56.1% · 46,319 instances
● Drawn later 60.3% · 85,481 instances

In hand 58.8% · 131,800 instances
Unseen in deck 53.8% · 135,946 instances
+5.0 percentage points when drawn

Compared with blue cards

Win rate when drawn58.8%131,800 instances9 of 38
Opening hand56.1%46,319 instances10 of 38
Drawn later60.3%85,481 instances10 of 38
In the deck56.3%268,944 instances7 of 38
Without seeing it53.8%135,946 instances2 of 38
Improvement when drawn+5.0 pp131,800 instances / 135,946 instances11 of 38
When benched55.7%115,006.3 matches15 of 38
Makes the deck61.8%66,566 picks with known usage16 of 38
Pick (last seen)6.1326,169 packs27 of 38
Taken at8.166,566 picks23 of 38

Ranks require 100 observations for that metric; comparisons are descriptive, not a pick order. Pick ranks put earlier picks first.

Best decks for it

no-splash decks only · card-level in-hand rates · 100 minimum

Blue–Red UR60.4%50,967 instancesBlue–Black UB59.8%30,480 instancesWhite–Blue WU57.1%5,740 instancesBlue–Green UG54.9%1,779 instances

Each tick is this card’s all-decks rate (58.8% · 131,800 instances). A high card rate does not prove that splashing it will improve your deck.

Best with

Adjusted associations, ranked by confidence.

Scroll of Isildur+4.9 pp17,610 games with both in the deck · 5,380 both drawnFiery Inscription+2.6 pp41,336 games with both in the deck · 13,393 both drawnLórien Revealed+1.8 pp120,193 games with both in the deck · 41,384 both drawn
How to read this

Observational, not a causal bonus. Both cards must be in the deck. Drawn means opening hand or normally drawn; each card counts once per game. Game-level approximate intervals do not account for repeated games by the same drafter.

At least 100 games in each of four drawn/not-drawn groups; adjusted for game length and screened by the lower confidence bound. Do not add these points to a card’s win rate.

Where it sits in the set

Above 78% of 251 nonland cards with 100+ instances, in win-rate order.

30% or lowerWin rate94% or higher

17Lands public datasets ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗ · Jun 15–Aug 28, 2023

Collect

2 printingsScryfall USD, snapshot Oct 25Pack odds →

Pick a printing for its prices and pull odds.

Prices

LTR 0047 · Regular printingListings ↗
FinishFound inPrice
Nonfoildraft · set$0.18
FoilCollector Booster · draft · set$0.25

Foil in a draft · Modeled · About 1 in 675 packs (0.15%) · 5.2% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →

Nonfoil in a draft · Modeled · About 1 in 10 packs (9.55%) · 97.3% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →

Foil in a set · Modeled · About 1 in 225 packs (0.44%) · 12.5% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →

Nonfoil in a set · Modeled · About 1 in 23 packs (4.26%) · 72.9% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →

Foil in a Collector Booster · Modeled · About 1 in 25 packs (3.95%) · 38.4% per display · MTGJSON model Oct 25, 2026 · How it’s modeled →

How to pull it

Official rates for the whole category, not this card.

BoosterSlotPer packCategory
Draft BoosterCommons100% per positionDraft and Set Booster common printings
Draft BoosterCommon or foil67%Draft and Set Booster common printings
Draft BoosterCommon or foil33%Main set and booster-fun foils
Set BoosterTen other Magic cards100%Other Draft and Set Booster printings
Set BoosterGuaranteed traditional foil100%Main set and booster-fun foils
Collector BoosterFoil commons100% per positionMain set · common
Collector BoosterFoil common or rare Sol Ring treatmentRegular cards in this group; no separate share publishedMain set · common

Mike Turian and Adam Styborski · Collecting LOTR ↗ · Sep 22, 2023

Details & sources

Legal in
Historic · Timeless · Modern · Legacy · Pauper · Vintage · CommanderLimited eligibility depends on the event and its booster pool.
Illustration
Tomas Duchek, LTR 47 · Scryfall ↗
More like this
Regular printing printings →
Sources
Mike Turian and Adam Styborski · Collecting LOTR · Sep 22, 2023
Scryfall USD, snapshot Oct 25
Comprehensive Rules ↗